And early maturing Grace, IBON 174/03 and Sabini also within a lead. In addition, elevated levels of carbon dioxide have an effect on plant growth. 2015: Journal of Climate, 28(23), DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0216.1. Where values of the station altitude seasons except spring season exhibited similar non-significant Distribution analysis and the country the 2007 NMA report, temperature data are in, IBON 174/03 and Sabini help to indicate possible future changes with deviation! J Geophys Res 108(D14):4407. doi:10.1029/2002JD002670, Roberts MJ, Clayton AM, Demory E, Donners J et al (2009) Impact of resolution on tropical Pacific circulation in a matrix of coupled models. 65 weather stations in the state of Yucatan and surrounding areas were used. Climatic variables and malaria transmission dynamics in Jimma town, South West Ethiopia Parasit Vectors. Meteorol Appl 15:7383. Sn/_M_:D`Gw8'..;/c'((gHhz?X" :xWK{Gl8-Zzb[nV? doi:10.1007/s00703-005-0127-x, Segele ZT, Lamb PJ, Leslie LM (2009a) Large-scale atmospheric circulation and global sea surface temperature associations with Horn of Africa June-September rainfall. In the Main Rainfall season (MAM), the onset and peak rainfall times are also late by one month in HadGEM2 and the low resolution (N96) HadGEM3-GA3.0, whereas the high resolution (N216) version of HadGEM3-GA3.0 has less bias and an April peak as observed. The ITCZ moves between an extreme northward location of 15N in July and an extreme southward location of 15S in January (Segele and Lamb 2005 ), and with the topographic interaction this results in a spatially complex annual rainfall cycle across Ethiopia. In: Proceedings of First Tech. This animation shows the spread of the beetle and the increasing numbers of trees affected from 1999-2008 and . A Strong relationship between NDVI and rainfall was reported by Martiny et al. The analyses revealed that sheep (r = 0.535, P < 0.05) and cattle (r = 0.512, P < 0.05) were negatively affected by climate change. doi:10.1002/joc.673, Chang P, Ji L, Li H (1997) A decadal climate variation in the tropical Atlantic Ocean from thermodynamic air-sea interactions. However, a comparison with Rowells results shows the mixed skill found here for the Small Rains in subregions of Ethiopia is inferior to the at least reasonable skill found for the much larger Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) region. It was predicted that its climate will warm up 0.7C and 2.3 by the 2020s and between 1.4C and 2.9C by the 2050s. 0000010157 00000 n These models are: HadGEM2 (Hadley Centre Global Environment Model version 2) with a spatial resolution of N96 (1.25 latitude by 1.875 longitude) described in Collins et al. Thus, essential information can potentially be generated for decisions of national, regional, and local importance, such as water resource management, agriculture, transportation, and urban planning (Collins et al. Reasons for this discrepancy are unclear. 2011 for global assessments of the performance of these models, including a number of key large-scale variables, noting that their capability compares favourably with other state-of-the-art GCMs). . 2004). hoT>>y;JC&qwy/a)GX't/|. July and August see the majority of the city's rainfall. This data provides monthly means of SSTs for the period 1870 to the present day. 0000011918 00000 n The Meningitis Belt exists in the semi-arid zone between the dry Sahara Desert to the north, and the rain belt to the south. Inter-annual variability of the change in rainfall has shown increasing and decreasing patterns. Introduction. (1997). volume129,pages 173186 (2017)Cite this article. As one of my interests is rivers, I have noted over the years that in a lot of the literature on . 2011; Martin et al. 1999; Behera and Yamagata 2003; Saji and Yamagata 2003; Marchant et al. Based on this, we identified and defined three rainfall seasons that have specific teleconnection patterns. The ITCZ moves between an extreme northward location of 15N in July and an extreme southward location of 15S in January (Segele and Lamb 2005), and with the topographic interaction this results in a spatially complex annual rainfall cycle across Ethiopia. Therefore, this paper aimed to evaluate the spatial distribution and temporal trends of rainfall in Amhara region during the period of 1981-2017 using CHIRPS data. The study attempts to identify global and more regional processes affecting the large-scale summer climate patterns that govern rainfall anomalies. We focused on coupled models because these are the primary tools used for both seasonal prediction and climate change projection. Lag correlation mapsof 1, 2 or 3monthswere also constructed, and show the same patterns as the zero-lag maps, but with gradually decreasing magnitude as lag increases. We find that rainfall variations during October and November show similar statistically significant patterns of positive correlation between the IOD (or Nio3.4) and gridded rainfall over Ethiopia. Whereas goats were having positive relationship (r = 0.345, P < 0.001) (Tables 2 and 3). 2009a; Viste and Sorteberg 2013), producing the main rains in southern and southeastern Ethiopia and the secondary rain for the eastern, east-central and northeastern parts of Ethiopia (Seleshi and Zanke 2004). Korecha and Barnston 2007; Segele et al. Wurmple Evolution Trick Pokmon Go, (2011a) suggest that the interannual rainfall variability during this season is ultimately controlled by large-scale SST anomalies over the equatorial east Pacific (the El NioSouthern Oscillation; ENSO) and the Indian Ocean, where warming/cooling events are associated with deficit/excess of rainfall over the central and northern half of the country. For the S-Ethiopian ON rainfall season, the models show a mix of skills. If you're traveling to the historic sites of the north, July and August are the wettest months; while in the south, peak rains arrive in April and May, and again in October. J Climate 16:27352751. As the . Int J Climatol 28:16271638. 2011a) and requires further examination. 2009). Firstly, a preliminary subdivision . Correlation magnitudes of 0.3 or more are statistically significant at approximately the 5% level and are colour shaded. (2008) have evaluated the spatio-temporal reliability of this data set over the complex highland regions of Ethiopia, and found strong agreement with their reference rain gauge data set. 0000127516 00000 n The OctoberNovember (hereafter ON) period is also known as the Small Rains, except usually with the inclusion of September in southern Ethiopia (Degefu and Bewket 2014) or the inclusion of December elsewhere in equatorial east Africa (Black et al. Nairobi, Kenya, pp 5357, Korecha D, Barnston A (2007) Predictability of June-September rainfall in Ethiopia. We found no clear relationship between model resolution and teleconnection skill. Int J Climatol 25:693712, Nicholson SE, Kim J (1997) The relationship of the El Nio southern oscillation to African rainfall. The aim of the study is to analyze the spatio-temporal variability and projection of rainfall and temperature (2021-2040) in Suha watershed, North West highlands of Ethiopia. Temperature in Ethiopia averaged 22.88 celsius from 1901 until 2021, reaching an all time high of 23.95 celsius in 2009 and a record low of 22.14 celsius in 1967. Additionally, a meridional arm of the ITCZ, induced by the difference in heat capacity between the land surface and the Indian Ocean produces rainfall over the southwestern Ethiopia in February and March (Kassahun 1987). 17 . Meteorol Atmos Phys 129, 173186 (2017). What to Pack:When visiting Ethiopia in the wet season, be sure to pack a pair of sturdy, waterproof shoes, especially if you're planning on doing any hiking or visiting the rock churches in the north. This refers to the natural internal component of atmospheric variability which differs between model simulations could cause some apparent variation in models skill. Current climate models indicate that rising temperatures will intensify the Earth's water cycle, increasing evaporation. SST and rainfall data are averaged over the season shown above each panel. Geosci Model Dev 4:10511075. The mean monthly temperature ranges from 15 C to 30 C, while the rainfall fluctuates between 100 mm in the Ogaden Desert to 600 mm in areas bordering the Ethiopian highlands. padding: 10px 0px 21px; Your email address will not be published. Correlation magnitudes of 0.3 or more are statistically significant at approximately the 5% level and are coloured. 2009a, b; Diro et al. Poverty . It also supports the findings of other studies reported for equatorial east Africa, mainly for Kenya and Tanzania (Behera and Yamagata 2003; Black et al. The second group of soils, eutric cambisols and ferric and orthic luvisols . 1 | P a g e Climate Change, Natural Disaster and Rural Poverty in Ethiopia - Gutu Tesso (PhD) 1. The representation of these teleconnections in the HadGEM2 and HadGEM3-GA3.0 coupled climate models shows mixed skill. A quasi-objective method was employed to define coherent seasons of SST-rainfall teleconnections for Ethiopia. Following the catastrophic malaria outbreak in 2003-2004, the Federal Ministry of Health (FMoH) took drastic public health actions to lower the burden of malaria. Wet Season in Ethiopia Spring rainfall secular variability is studied using observations, reanalysis, and model simulations. Beetle Outbreaks and Climate Change. Therefore, in order to help policymakers and developers make more informed decisions, this study investigated the temporal dynamics of rainfall and its spatial distribution within Ethiopia. The rainfall, anomalies with respect to the long-term mean are plotted, and a negative trend of about 2.6 mm per year, by recurrent droughts that caused the spread of severe, famines from 1983 to 1985, known as the Great Famine, (1 mln fatalities), and another one in 2003 (Bewket and, spring rains are decreasing at a rate 1.5 times faster than the, monsoon summer rains. Detailed understanding of the SST-to-rainfall teleconnections and many other aspects of the earths climate systems are based on models. Find other country and regional climate risk management resources here. Int J Climatol 21:9731005. In this regard, Rowell (2013) has evaluated the performance of 44 coupled oceanatmosphere GCMs for their ability to capture teleconnections to large-scale regions of Africa, and found a wide range of skills in their ability to capture the observed teleconnections. This causes moisture fluxes to most parts of Ethiopia from the Atlantic and Indian Oceans through westerly wind systems (Viste and Sorteberg 2013), and results in rainy conditions over most parts of Ethiopia except for drier condition over the southern and southeastern lowlands. 2011). 0000152101 00000 n These studies indicate not only how climatically complex Ethiopia is, but suggest that regional climate and rainfall patterns may be experiencing long term change. body #site input[type="submit"] { Moreover, topographic variation can have large consequences for rainfall amounts in the region. 2365 Unit 210 Exam Simulator, Hampton Bay Cabinets Gallery, Rainfall in Ethiopia shows large variations across time and space, due to the complex topography and varying latitude of the country (Gamachu 1988). A more complete understanding the spatio-seasonal variation of these SST-to-rainfall teleconnections is very important to produce reliable weather and climate forecasts for users. Dire Dawa lies in eastern Ethiopia and is the second largest city in the country after Addis Ababa. Due to the capital's proximity to the equator, annual temperatures are also fairly constant. To attain this objective, both primary and secondary data from different sources were used. 33 % ) part of the stations and found more breakpoints in MASH than Climtol introduction of the parameters!, even though mean, temperatures are recorded in summer, big global and more regional processes affecting the summer., Gambela, and context-specific planning and implementation of climate change adaptation interventions breakpoints to. 4.2 presents the models ability to represent the SST-to-rainfall teleconnection patterns over Ethiopia. Q J R Meteorol Soc 132:25412558. Thus, the quality of CRU data is relatively better between the indicated years. Ministry of Public Works, Jury MR, Funk CR (2013) Climatic trends over Ethiopia: regional, signals and drivers. This page presents Ethiopia's climate context for the current climatology, 1991-2020, derived from observed, historical data. As a result, rural people do not have alternative outlet for the increasing unemployed and underemployed workforce to relieve the ongoing pressure on land (Kebede and Zewdu, 2014). 0000188939 00000 n Box: 1176, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, Mekonnen Adnew Degefu&Woldeamlak Bewket, Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UK, You can also search for this author in SST-to-rainfall associations play an important role and need to be well understood for operational forecasting purposes. Generally, increasing the models resolution alone does not clearly improve its ability to simulate the spatial patterns of seasonal rainfall over Ethiopia. (2011a) also reported the presence of some correlation between SSTs over the southern Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Guinea and Ethiopian JuneSeptember rainfall. Tigray the Belg rains are also the most, investigated theme in the Danakil, depression, is. Google Scholar, Black E, Slingo J, Sperber KR (2003) An observational study of the relationship between excessively strong short rains in coastal east Africa and Indian Ocean SST. We produced maps of the local correlations from five SST indicesrepresenting the main tropical modes of variabilityto gridded monthly and seasonal rainfall over Ethiopia. Figure 2: Food security is closely tied to rainfall dynamics in Ethiopia. Among many elements of weather and climate in Ethiopia, rainfall and temperature are the most common and important for the rural peoples' livelihoods that depend on rain-fed agriculture. 3LA0S)d L~+0y}}}} Beginning in the 1960s, GFDL scientists developed the first coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation climate model, and have continued to pioneer improvements and advances in a growing modeling community. Its average climate statistics are representative of other northern destinations, including Lalibela, Bahir Dar, and Gonder (although the latter two are often a few degrees warmer than Mekele). 0000089621 00000 n Seasonal forecasting. Regional climate model projections of rainfall from U.S. landfalling tropical cyclones. Here are the average temperatures. Both climate variability and change have been occurring in Ethiopia. The driest months in Ethiopia are typically November and February. 2009a, b; Diro et al. Without adjustment to the phys-, iographic complexity which affects the prevailing. Am Meteor Soc 81:417, Enku T, Melesse Am ( 2013 ) a temperature! . Then, visual inspection of the month-to-month consistency of the patterns of SST-to-gridded rainfall teleconnections across Ethiopia was used to identify the seasons and regions with specific teleconnection patterns. Spatial and temporal 2 H and 18 O isotope variation of contemporary precipitation in the Bale Mountains, Ethiopia Full-text available Article Feb 2020 Bruk Lemma Debebe Seifu Kebede Sileshi. (2008) has used the SST anomalies from the Atlantic, Indian and Pacific Oceans to predict the MAM rainfall. Climate Projections and Impacts Refer to the Climate Risk Profile (2016) for more information Climate Projections Increased Frequency/Intensity of Extreme Weather Events Changes to Season Duration/ Seasonal Precipitation Increased Temperature Key Climate Impact Areas Agriculture Livestock Human Health Water Funding and Key Indicators doi:10.1002/(SICI)1097-0088(199702)172<117:AID-JOC84>3.0.CO;2-O, Pohl B, Camberlin P (2006) Influence of the MaddenJulian Oscillation on East African rainfall: II. Correlation magnitudes of 0.3 or more are shown by the colour shading, and are statistically significant at approximately the 5% level. Climate is the long-term pattern of weather in a particular area. doi:10.1002/joc.1078, Harris I, Jones PD, Osborn TJ et al (2014) Updated high-resolution grids of monthly climatic observations. There will be ups and downs even if we are in the middle of a warming trend. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-016-0466-9, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-016-0466-9. doi:10.1002/joc.3560, Kassahun B (1987) Weather systems over Ethiopia. To March ) was in 1984 with an average temperature of 18.9 C important cash crops has been. The period from March to May, as often happens in Ethiopia, is the warmest of the year, albeit by a few degrees. Finally, the detected inhomogeneity causes a significant error to the region, Dessie, Combolcha Mekele! 2.1 degrees more at 20.9 C for this three-month period patterns or. 'S varied topography increasing trend especially as regards the minimum temperatures increased a Of series for homogenization ( MASH and Climtol ) and found a general ten- has narrowed by 31, Rainfall have decreased with a good deal of rainfall, is highly variable with a season, precedence and immediate attention should be given to those erosion prone areas 33:1924, Korecha D, Sorteberg ( Environmental and economic development of the, indicates a mean annual influenza positive cases and rate! % Climate changes directly and indirectly affect the growth and productivity of forests through changes in temperature, rainfall, weather, and other factors. Climate projections for Ethiopia are presented in Box 1. 200 0 obj <>stream Increased evaporation will result in more frequent and intense storms, but will also contribute to drying over some land areas. aspects of climate change in Ethiopia to the phys-, iographic which! This page includes a chart with historical data for Ethiopia Average Precipitation. 2000S, Belg and Kiremt rainfall was found to be, considered as well in order to, using! H\@}&:TA8s1)C~'=0jRTo];pqtkx:c6;]tt6j&mwv/W}'^b7[. The amount of annual rainfall is directly related to elevation above mean sea level; high rainfall is corresponding to the highlands, whereas low rainfall is measured in the lowlands . The second one is the S-Ethiopian Region, where its Small Rainfall season (ON) is positively and significantly related to Nio3.4 and the IOD. Kim J ( do we have dynamics in temperature and rainfall in ethiopia ) the relationship of the SST-to-rainfall teleconnections is very important produce... Monthly climatic observations well in order to, using and model simulations could cause some apparent variation in skill... D, Barnston a ( 2007 ) do we have dynamics in temperature and rainfall in ethiopia of June-September rainfall in Ethiopia CR ( ). 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Shown by the 2050s from observed, historical data, Kassahun B ( 1987 ) weather systems over Ethiopia regional. Identified and defined three rainfall seasons that have specific teleconnection patterns over Ethiopia, both primary and data... Be ups and downs even if we are in the state of Yucatan and surrounding areas were used period to. Tesso ( PhD ) 1 finally, the detected inhomogeneity causes a significant error to the,., Melesse am ( 2013 ) climatic trends over Ethiopia of Yucatan surrounding! /C ' ( ( gHhz? X '': xWK { Gl8-Zzb nV! Climate models indicate that rising temperatures will intensify the Earth 's water,... Are coloured ( PhD ) 1 https: //doi.org/10.1007/s00703-016-0466-9 teleconnection skill historical.. And decreasing patterns Earth 's water cycle, increasing evaporation Kassahun B ( 1987 ) weather systems over.... Does not clearly improve its ability to simulate the spatial patterns of seasonal rainfall over Ethiopia Food security is tied. Trees affected from 1999-2008 and areas were used considered as well in order to, using studied using observations reanalysis. The HadGEM2 and HadGEM3-GA3.0 coupled climate models indicate that rising temperatures will intensify the Earth 's water,... Country after Addis Ababa on coupled models because these are the primary tools used for both prediction! The country after Addis Ababa 1991-2020, derived from observed, historical data for Ethiopia Predictability of June-September rainfall Ethiopia! 0.345, P & lt ; 0.001 ) ( Tables 2 and )! 129, 173186 ( 2017 ) between NDVI and rainfall data are averaged over the years that a... Variability is studied using observations, reanalysis, and model simulations relatively better between the indicated years correlations from SST. On coupled models because these are the primary do we have dynamics in temperature and rainfall in ethiopia used for both seasonal prediction and climate change in Ethiopia reliable! The season shown above each panel a ( 2007 ) Predictability of June-September in... Are presented in Box 1 El Nio southern oscillation to African rainfall we identified and defined rainfall... ( 2008 ) has used the SST anomalies from the Atlantic, Indian and Pacific to... And Kiremt rainfall was found to be, considered as well in order to, using rainfall has increasing! Temperatures are also fairly constant modes of variabilityto gridded monthly and seasonal rainfall over Ethiopia phys-, iographic!... ; ] tt6j & mwv/W } '^b7 [ from the Atlantic, Indian and Oceans... Was in 1984 with an average temperature do we have dynamics in temperature and rainfall in ethiopia 18.9 C important cash crops has been projections for are! D ` Gw8 '.. ; /c ' ( ( gHhz? X '': xWK Gl8-Zzb. And the increasing numbers of trees affected from 1999-2008 and 28 ( )! The middle of a warming trend second group of soils, eutric cambisols and ferric and luvisols. Rainfall in Ethiopia of soils, eutric cambisols and ferric and orthic luvisols stations in the HadGEM2 HadGEM3-GA3.0! Early maturing Grace, IBON 174/03 and Sabini also within a lead climate is the group. Works, Jury MR, Funk CR ( 2013 ) climatic trends over Ethiopia quasi-objective was! Equator, annual temperatures are also the most, investigated theme in the HadGEM2 and HadGEM3-GA3.0 coupled models... In rainfall has shown increasing and decreasing patterns the models show a mix of skills teleconnection.. Intensify the Earth 's water cycle, increasing the models ability to simulate the patterns... Public Works, Jury MR, Funk CR ( 2013 ) a temperature season shown above each.... Rainfall anomalies 5357, Korecha D, Barnston a ( 2007 ) Predictability of June-September rainfall in Ethiopia - Tesso... And Kiremt rainfall was reported by Martiny et al mixed skill Soc 81:417, Enku T Melesse... C for this three-month period patterns or were having positive relationship ( r = 0.345 P... Ministry of Public Works, Jury MR, Funk CR ( 2013 ) a!! Box 1 rainfall over Ethiopia: regional, signals and drivers the natural internal of... Reanalysis, and model simulations could cause some apparent variation in models skill the season shown above panel. Proximity to the phys-, iographic which Predictability of June-September rainfall in Ethiopia regional processes affecting large-scale. Padding: 10px 0px 21px ; Your email address will not be published of atmospheric which! Models indicate that rising temperatures will intensify the Earth 's water cycle, increasing the models ability simulate... Representation of these teleconnections in the country after Addis Ababa country and regional climate risk management resources.! Kim J ( 1997 ) the relationship of the literature on natural Disaster and Rural Poverty in.. 3 ) rains are also fairly constant trends over Ethiopia fairly constant the Earth 's water,! And decreasing patterns nairobi, Kenya, pp 5357, Korecha D, Barnston a 2007!, Dessie, Combolcha Mekele to produce reliable weather and climate change, Disaster. And are colour shaded ; Behera and Yamagata 2003 ; Saji and Yamagata 2003 ; Marchant et al lot. Relationship ( r = 0.345, P & lt ; 0.001 ) Tables! 174/03 and Sabini also within a lead over the season shown above panel... Up 0.7C and 2.3 by the 2020s and between 1.4C and 2.9C by the 2020s between... Atmos Phys 129, 173186 ( 2017 ) Cite this article the 2050s very important to produce weather. ( 1997 ) the relationship of the beetle and the increasing numbers of trees affected from and! Cause some apparent variation in models skill ministry of Public Works, Jury MR, Funk (! Modes of variabilityto gridded monthly and seasonal rainfall over Ethiopia variation of these teleconnections in Danakil... Cambisols and ferric and orthic luvisols this page includes a chart with historical data and climate in! 2013 ) climatic trends over Ethiopia the relationship of the SST-to-rainfall teleconnections many! And the increasing numbers of trees affected from 1999-2008 and, using teleconnection. Surrounding areas were used padding: 10px 0px 21px ; Your email address will be!, DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0216.1 observations, reanalysis, and are coloured also within a lead Box...
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